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☆ The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, ”, Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia

☆ Opinion: The ‘rising superpower’ myth about China
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Opinion Peter Bergen | Joel Rayburn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

He was the US Special Envoy for Syria and the senior director for Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon on the National Security Council staff during the Trump administration. After that, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said it would suspend publishing youth unemployment data in the future. What does it signify that China’s national power, which today is vast, is almost certain to be weaker in the future? If Xi and his strategists have a feasible plan for nimbly averting China’s demographic doom, they are keeping very quiet about it. This brings us back to the question of national security strategies for the United States and its allies.

Persons: Peter Bergen, Peter Bergen ”, Joel Rayburn, Trump, Biden, Saddam Hussein’s, Lloyd Austin, China’s, Xi Jinping, Stephen Shaver, ”, Ng Han Guan, Xi, China “, ” Trump Organizations: New, Arizona State University, Apple, Spotify, American Center for Levant Studies, New America, US, National Security Council, CNN, Strategy, Pentagon, of Defense, Development Research Center, Communist Party, UPI, Manpower, Census Bureau, National Bureau of Statistics, Financial, China’s Southwestern University of Finance, Economics, Rocky, United Nations, Beijing, Pew Research Center, Communist, Trump administration’s National Security, Twitter, Trump Locations: New America, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Washington, China, United States, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, al Qaeda, Ukraine, People’s Republic of China, Beijing, India, Yarkent County, China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Saudi Arabia, USSR, Russia, Russia’s Ukraine, Vietnam, Korea, Italy, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong

☆ The Fed likely won’t raise rates this month — but November is another matter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —Last week’s economic data increasingly gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates steady this month, following a hike in July that brought rates to their highest level in 22 years. It’s hard to say definitively if or when the central bank will hike interest rates again this year. The Fed could hold rates steady for the rest of the year if both the job market and the broader economy continue to slow, helping bring down inflation. Higher for longer means keeping interest rates elevated for a prolonged period. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases August inflation data.

Persons: hasn’t, ” Leslie Thompson, Thompson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Susan Collins, Powell’s Jackson, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Olesya Dmitracova, ” Patrick Hummel, David Lesne, Juan Perez, Carrascosa, Barnes & Noble Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Financial, Spectrum Wealth Management, CNN, Fed, Kansas City, Boston, Yahoo, Finance, Atlanta Fed, Volkswagen, Renault, UBS, French, Swiss, Barnes &, The Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Eagle, Express, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Kroger, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Cape Town , South Africa, Europe

☆ US consumer spending is expected to cool further but not fall off a cliff
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-27 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Investors and economists are bullish that consumer spending, the US economy’s main engine, won’t deteriorate too much, which should help stocks avoid a massive sell-off this year. The US Labor Department releases July figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Commerce Department releases July data on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended Aug. 26. Friday: The US Labor Department releases August figures on the labor market, including monthly payroll gains, wage growth, and the unemployment rate.

Persons: “ We’re, we’ve, ” Matthew Palazzolo, we’re, We’re, ” Palazzolo, pare, It’s, Biden, Jerome Powell, Sinead Colton Grant, Anna Cooban Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, US, Bernstein Private Wealth Management, CNN, Nvidia, Research, Fed, Kansas City, San Francisco Fed, Mellon, International Monetary Fund, Global, US Labor Department, Board, US Commerce Department, National Association of Realtors, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, American, Germany, Europe, Berlin

☆ Fed officials are divided, but holding rates steady in September seems likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-13 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve officials meet next month to determine whether to raise interest rates for the 12th time to cool the economy or hold them steady. Some officials think the Fed has already raised its benchmark lending rate enough to curb inflation, but others think it’s too soon to tap the brakes. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker echoed that sentiment in a speech last week, saying “I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady.”Other Fed officials agree. “Inflation is still significantly above” the Fed’s 2% target, Fed governor Michelle Bowman said last week at an event in Atlanta. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July policymaking meeting as well as July figures on industrial production.

Persons: ” Rajeev Sharma, ”, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, “, Raphael Bostic, there’s, Michelle Bowman, ” Carol Schleif, ” Schleif, Katie Lobosco, Brinker Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Key Private Bank, CNN, “, Fed, Financial, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, BMO Family Office, Internal Revenue, Tax Administration, IRS, Kansas City Tax Processing, Fresno Tax Processing, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Depot, US Commerce Department, Target, Federal Reserve, Walmart Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Kansas, Fresno

☆ China slips into deflation as CPI falls for the first time in more than two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Hong Kong CNN —The Chinese economy has slipped into deflation, with consumer prices falling for the first time in more than two years in another sign of weakening demand. The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in July from a year ago, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. The producer price index (PPI), which measures goods prices at the factory gate, also dropped by 4.4% in July from a year earlier. Signs of deflation have become more prevalent in the world’s second biggest economy in recent months, sparking concerns that China could enter a prolonged period of stagnation. China is also suffering from a prolonged slump in its real estate sector, and weak trade.

Persons: That’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Hong Kong, China

☆ Ahead of two key inflation reports, what would a soft landing look like exactly?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But aside from simply skirting a recession, it’s not obvious what the economy would look like in a soft landing. And who even declares that the Fed has officially defied the odds and achieved a soft landing? The main aspect of a soft landing, according to economists, is the absence of a recession, which is determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.) In a soft landing, the job market has to remain intact. The other key feature of a soft landing is for the Fed to successfully control inflation, but that’s open to some interpretation.

Persons: we’ve, ”, Kayla Bruun, “, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, Josh Markman, cooldown, Austan Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Armour, Ralph Lauren Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Morning, Atlanta, ZipRecruiter, Labor, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, “, Tyson Foods, UPS, Fox, Restaurant Brands, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Disney, US Labor Department, National Statistics, University of Michigan Locations: Washington

☆ China’s Youth Unemployment Tops 20% Amid Signs of Stalling Recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Stella Yifan Xie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Fresh graduates attended a job fair in Yantai, China, earlier this year. Photo: Cfoto/Zuma PressHONG KONG—China’s youth unemployment rate rose above 20% for the first time since Beijing began tracking the data five years ago, the latest sign of uncertainty around the country’s economic recovery. A bundle of new economic indicators for April, released Tuesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, also showed measures of retail sales, factory production and fixed-asset investment all falling short of economists’ expectations.

☆ China’s Recovery Loses Steam, Signaling Trouble for Global Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Stella Yifan Xie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

China has been the most populous nation in the world since at least 1750. But in April, India’s population is set to surpass China’s. WSJ examines what this shift in population could mean for the future of each country, as well as the global economy. Photo illustration: Jacob Anderson Nelson/WSJHONG KONG—China’s post-Covid growth spurt is sputtering and its youth unemployment rate hit a record high, signaling trouble for a recovery that was expected to boost global growth. Investment in the country’s property sector also dropped in the first four months of the year.

☆ Chinese Consumer Inflation Slows to Lowest Level in Two Years
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Stella Yifan Xie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Consumer prices in the world’s second-largest economy rose 0.1% in April from a year earlier, according to official data. Photo: wu hao/ShutterstockHONG KONG—Consumer prices in China rose at their slowest pace in more than two years, reflecting uncertainties in the economy that threaten to limit a consumption-led recovery from three years of strict Covid-19 measures. Consumer prices in the world’s second-largest economy rose 0.1% in April from a year earlier, easing further from March’s 0.7% year-over-year increase, according to data released Thursday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

☆ China’s Consumers Lead Recovery in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Jason Douglas | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A rebound in China is essential to support global economic growth this year. Photo: Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesSINGAPORE—Activity in China’s services sector grew at a healthy pace in April, a sign that Chinese consumers continue to drive the country’s economic rebound as its factory sector quickly decelerates. China’s official purchasing managers index for the nonmanufacturing sectors of the economy—that is, services and construction—came in at 56.4 in April, a weaker reading than March’s 58.2 level but still comfortably above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, according to data released Sunday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

☆ Economy Week Ahead: U.S. Inflation and Retail Sales in Focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Consumer prices in January reflected a slight cooling of still-high inflation. TuesdayThe Labor Department releases its February consumer-price index, a closely watched measure of what consumers pay for goods and services. Consumer prices rose 6.4% in January from a year earlier, reflecting a slight cooling of still-high inflation. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases January and February figures on industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, a measure of infrastructure and equipment investing.

☆ China records first population decline in 60 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Simone Mccarthy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s population shrank in 2022 for the first time in more than 60 years, a new milestone in the country’s deepening demographic crisis with significant implications for its slowing economy. The population declined in 2022 to 1.411 billion, down some 850,000 people from the previous year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced during a Tuesday briefing on annual data. The birth rate also fell to a record low of 6.77 births per 1,000, down from 7.52 a year earlier and the lowest level since the founding of Communist China in 1949. To arrest the falling birth rate, the Chinese government announced in 2015 that it would allow married couples to have two children. But after a brief uptick in 2016, the national birth rate has continued to fall.

☆ China adds billions to its 2021 GDP estimate, but its economy is facing a big test this year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2021 was over half a trillion yuan more than initially calculated, official data revealed Tuesday. The update comes at a time the world’s second-largest economy faces severe strain from an unprecedented wave of Covid infections sweeping the country. The new data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the nation’s economy grew 8.4% in 2021 from a year earlier, higher than the 8.1% initially reported. Per the revised figures, China’s GDP reached 114.92 trillion yuan ($16.52 trillion) last year, up 556.7 billion yuan ($80 billion) from the previous estimate. Revisions to initial estimates of GDP are common in many economies, mainly because of the large amount of information used in data construction.

☆ China’s Economy Grew 3.9% in the Third Quarter
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( Jason Douglas | Stella Yifan Xie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

SINGAPORE—China’s economy grew more strongly than expected in the third quarter as the country bounced back modestly from crippling Covid lockdowns in the spring, though challenges remain as leader Xi Jinping consolidates control of the political apparatus for another five years. China’s gross domestic product grew by 3.9% for the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Monday in a data release that was unexpectedly delayed as Communist Party leaders gathered for a key meeting in Beijing.

☆ China’s Economic Data Gets Harder to Find as Growth Slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Stella Yifan Xie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

HONG KONG—The world is eager for clues about the health of China’s economy as the country endures its worst prolonged slowdown in years. But getting a clear picture has only grown more difficult, as data becomes harder to obtain and unflattering analysis vanishes. On Monday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics abruptly canceled the release of quarterly gross domestic product data just hours before it was set to be published, without providing a reason or setting a new date. Days earlier, the country’s customs agency simply didn’t release monthly official trade data, offering no explanation.

HONG KONG, Oct 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - It’s mid-afternoon Monday in Beijing and a simple question is doing the rounds: will China’s latest GDP figures be published as scheduled the next day? A day later, there’s still no sign of when the data will land, nor any clear explanation. It invites speculation that the numbers show the economy is in bad shape and are being kept under wraps so they don’t steal the thunder of the ruling Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress, which began on Sunday. The delay came amid the twice-a-decade congress of the ruling Communist Party which runs from Oct. 16 to 22. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterEditing by Antony Currie and Thomas ShumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ China Abruptly Delays GDP Release During Communist Party Conference
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Stella Yifan Xie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A press conference being held Monday on the sidelines of the Communist Party’s 20th National Congress in Beijing. HONG KONG—China abruptly delayed the publication of its third-quarter gross domestic product data on Monday, a day before it was set to be released, an unusual move as the country’s ruling Communist Party stages a key political gathering this week. The GDP figure, as well as a series of other major economic indicators including retail sales, property sales and fixed-asset investment, originally slated to be released on Tuesday, were marked as “delayed” on the website of China’s National Bureau of Statistics Monday afternoon.

☆ China’s Inflation Rises at Fastest Pace in Two Years
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Jason Douglas | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

SINGAPORE—Consumer prices in China rose in September at their fastest annual pace in more than two years, though inflation in the world’s second-largest economy remains mild compared with rates seen in Europe and the U.S. Annual inflation hit 2.8% in September, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Friday, driven by a sharp rise in prices of food, especially pork. That compared with a 2.5% annual rise in consumer prices in August, and marked the fastest rate of inflation since April 2020.

Raising domestic coal output is consistent with Beijing's broader effort to indigenise supplies of critical energy sources, raw materials and technology. Production has been growing faster than coal-fired electricity generation as the government tries to increase fuel stocks and cut reliance on imports. Imports of coal and lignite have also fallen to 168 million tonnes in the first eight months of 2022, from 198 million tonnes in 2022 and 220 million tonnes in 2019. Coal imports include both high-grade coking coal for blast furnaces as well as lower-grade coal for use in power plants. Low levels of hydro generation forced China to rely more heavily on coal-fired units and draw more heavily on coal supplies since the start of July.

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